Hi Dan... I suspect that I will not be in a position to sell for at least a few months. Is it realistic to think if I hold onto it for another year that I would any further ahead?
That certainly is the billion dollar question, would you be further ahead a year from now if you were to hold onto any property? I suppose I would venture to say that there has to be a reason for everything… prices go up when demand goes up. We know that demand is at a five year low for this time of year, and that corresponds with the decline in population growth in our city. If we anticipated an influx of new Calgarians as we did in 2006, it would be a good bet that prices could potentially go up. I don't think anyone foresees such an event any time soon. I can tell you that at the beginning of this year I was involved with a few listings that were originally listed in 2008 when we had our first glut of inventory. The clients I had decided to hold off for almost two years in anticipation of selling for a higher price. I can tell you they sold well below what they originally had their home listed for then. One specific client originally listed for $509k in 2008 and were on the market for 188 days, lowered to $450k and no nibbles. In 2009 they listed again briefly for $465k.
They ended up renting the home out, and I can assure you the renter left the home in atrocious condition that cost them a lot of money to remediate. Would they have been better off getting the house off their plate back in 2008? I'd say it's safe to say in this particular example they would have had a lot less stress in their lives.
As I mentioned before, if you do anticipate waiting past 2010 you should put together a longer term plan, maybe three or four years minimum. If we lose 10% by the end of the year, why would prices increase in 2011? If gas and oil prices increase significantly, absolutely! Will it happen? If we have a massive influx of new citizens to Calgary, prices of real estate will most probably increase. Will significant population growth happen? Probably not - unless the oil and gas prices move up significantly. I believe we will see further drops in average and median sale prices by the end of this year. We will then probably have a period of flat growth where we will see prices remain steady for a significant period of time, then we will see slow, sustainable growth.
Also take into account that every year you do not sell your home, you should be decreasing the balance of your mortgage. That will certainly influence your bottom line when you do finally sell. You also need to analyze what your other options are. If you do not own a home, you will be paying someone else rent. That may not seem significant over the next 12 months, but in the long run, putting your rent toward paying down your own investment, in my opinion, is a much wiser decision.
If you are thinking of downsizing both your home and your monthly carrying costs your affordability is certainly an important consideration. You are right, there are some excellent opportunities in other areas of the city. For example, I have a beautiful property listed in Evanston for $369,900.
Assuming a Buyer puts down 20%, interest at 4.5%, amortization 25 years and it sells for full list price, monthly mortgage would be around $1,638. Assuming all the same for a house priced at $468k, mortgage payment would be around $2,072, a savings of around $434 per month. Also take into account taxes, utilities and insurance would all be lower, bringing your savings to over $500 per month.
When you are ready to sit down and discuss your options and your plans, I would be happy to do so.
All the best,
Dan
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Real Estate July Statistics in Calgary
The Calgary Real Estate Board has released the latest statistics and the news is not good, but it is nothing we were not expecting. Last year, July saw 2,853 sales in Calgary and the surrounding area, which was actually quite high. July 2008 had 2,336 sales, July 2007 had 2,677 sales, July 2006 had 2,710 sales and in July 2005 - prior to our huge escalation in pricing - there were 2,723 sales. Regardless of how we look at it, we are extremely and dangerously low this year with only 1,683 sales in July. May and June also saw the lowest sales figures in comparison to May and June sales in the past five years.
Historically, August sees lower sales figures than May, June and July. We should also anticipate that sales will typically decrease the last third of the year due to the change in seasons. As a Seller, we need to pay very close attention to the sales figures over the next few months. The real estate market is one of the most pure forms of supply and demand, and as we see demand drop further, prices may also adjust suddenly and dramatically. Average sale prices have dropped 4% in the past month, which is quite concerning. Some economists have been predicting dramatic changes in pricing (see my blog) by the end of the year.
The question is… when can we expect the market to level out and start to increase again? Typically our "spring" market picks up the pace from the winter doldrums, however, we need to keep a close watch on some worrisome trends that will certainly effect our market. Most specifically, Calgary has seen a dramatic change in its growth. The Calgary Herald reported that our growth has slowed to a 26 year low (see the July 23rd edition.) More people left the city than arrived for the first time since 1992. Without a doubt, the fact our population growth is the lowest since 1984 is having a huge impact on our market right now. We are certainly in for some interesting months ahead.
If you have any questions or would like further clarification on any of this information, please do not hesitate to drop me a line.
________________________________________
News Release
Summer Cool Down Continues in Calgary Housing Market
Calgary, August 3, 2010 – The summer cool down in Calgary’s housing market continued in the month of July, according to figures released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).
The number of single family homes sold in July 2010 in the city of Calgary was down 42 per cent from the same time a year ago, and condominium sales saw a decrease of 44 per cent from the same time a year ago.
July 2010 saw 915 single family homes sold in the city of Calgary. This is a decrease of 14 per cent from 1,061 sales in June 2010. In July 2009, single family home sales totalled 1,585. The number of condominium sales for the month of July 2010 was 396. This was a decrease of 11 per cent from the 445 condominium transactions recorded in June 2010. In July 2009, condominium sales were 702.
“Calgary’s housing market is cooling off after its record-setting pace in the post-recession period. This slow-down is not all that surprising in the face of tighter mortgage regulations and rising interest rates. The post-recession rally we saw in the summer of 2009 was unique and that pace couldn’t be sustained,” says Sano Stante, president-elect of CREB®.
“The sense of urgency seen last summer, fall and winter in the lead-up to tighter mortgage-lending measures has diminished,” says Stante. “Rising mortgage rates and increased inventories will be the primary head-wind facing Calgary’s housing market, but improving job prospects will offer some tail winds in the latter half of 2010 and into 2011.”
The average price of a single family home in the city of Calgary in July 2010 was $464,655, showing a 4 per cent decrease from June 2010, when the average price was $481,964, and showing an increase of 6 per cent from July 2009, when the average price was $436,782. The average price of a condominium in the city of Calgary was $291,168, showing no significant change from June 2010, when the average price was $292,238 and a 2 per cent increase over last year, when the average price was $285,032. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.
“We are seeing relative stability in our average and median prices for the Calgary market,” says Stante. “A gradual return to moderate interest rates will not trigger any kind of steep decline in prices in our housing market. Prices may soften in select markets where inventory has bulked up, but for the most part they will remain relatively sticky as the economy improves.”
“Nonetheless with the combination of historically low interest rates and a large inventory of homes, there are some great buys out there—particularly in areas where comparable stock is ample such as the condominium and multi-family market. This presents a great opportunity to get into the market or to trade up,” adds Stante.
The median price of a single family home in the city of Calgary for July 2010 was $400,000, showing a 5 per cent decrease from June 2010, when the median price was $418,900, and a 3 per cent increase from July 2009, when the median price was $390,000. The median price of a condominium in July 2010 was $268,000, showing a 1 per cent decrease from June 2010, when the median was $269,900. That’s up 2 per cent from July 2009, when the median price was $263,000.
All city of Calgary MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary’s city limits. The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.
There was a slowdown in the number of Calgarians putting homes up for sale in the month of July. Single family listings in the city of Calgary added for the month of July totalled 1,942, a decrease of 29 per cent from June 2010 when 2,733 new listings were added, and showing a decrease of 7 per cent from July 2009, when 2,089 new listings came to the market.
Condominium new listings in the city of Calgary added for July 2010 were 890, down 18 per cent from June 2010, when the MLS® saw 1,084 condo listings coming to the market. This is a decrease of 3 per cent from July 2009, when new condominium listings added were 918.
“Indeed Alberta and Calgary’s economic recovery is lagging behind the rest of the country right now. But on the bright side we see this trend reversing itself as we move into 2011. We expect Alberta to lead in economic growth and recovery—outperforming much of the country in 2011,” says Stante.
To view the CREB statistics page, please visit the media page here:
Calgary Real Estate Statistics
Historically, August sees lower sales figures than May, June and July. We should also anticipate that sales will typically decrease the last third of the year due to the change in seasons. As a Seller, we need to pay very close attention to the sales figures over the next few months. The real estate market is one of the most pure forms of supply and demand, and as we see demand drop further, prices may also adjust suddenly and dramatically. Average sale prices have dropped 4% in the past month, which is quite concerning. Some economists have been predicting dramatic changes in pricing (see my blog) by the end of the year.
The question is… when can we expect the market to level out and start to increase again? Typically our "spring" market picks up the pace from the winter doldrums, however, we need to keep a close watch on some worrisome trends that will certainly effect our market. Most specifically, Calgary has seen a dramatic change in its growth. The Calgary Herald reported that our growth has slowed to a 26 year low (see the July 23rd edition.) More people left the city than arrived for the first time since 1992. Without a doubt, the fact our population growth is the lowest since 1984 is having a huge impact on our market right now. We are certainly in for some interesting months ahead.
If you have any questions or would like further clarification on any of this information, please do not hesitate to drop me a line.
________________________________________
News Release
Summer Cool Down Continues in Calgary Housing Market
Calgary, August 3, 2010 – The summer cool down in Calgary’s housing market continued in the month of July, according to figures released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).
The number of single family homes sold in July 2010 in the city of Calgary was down 42 per cent from the same time a year ago, and condominium sales saw a decrease of 44 per cent from the same time a year ago.
July 2010 saw 915 single family homes sold in the city of Calgary. This is a decrease of 14 per cent from 1,061 sales in June 2010. In July 2009, single family home sales totalled 1,585. The number of condominium sales for the month of July 2010 was 396. This was a decrease of 11 per cent from the 445 condominium transactions recorded in June 2010. In July 2009, condominium sales were 702.
“Calgary’s housing market is cooling off after its record-setting pace in the post-recession period. This slow-down is not all that surprising in the face of tighter mortgage regulations and rising interest rates. The post-recession rally we saw in the summer of 2009 was unique and that pace couldn’t be sustained,” says Sano Stante, president-elect of CREB®.
“The sense of urgency seen last summer, fall and winter in the lead-up to tighter mortgage-lending measures has diminished,” says Stante. “Rising mortgage rates and increased inventories will be the primary head-wind facing Calgary’s housing market, but improving job prospects will offer some tail winds in the latter half of 2010 and into 2011.”
The average price of a single family home in the city of Calgary in July 2010 was $464,655, showing a 4 per cent decrease from June 2010, when the average price was $481,964, and showing an increase of 6 per cent from July 2009, when the average price was $436,782. The average price of a condominium in the city of Calgary was $291,168, showing no significant change from June 2010, when the average price was $292,238 and a 2 per cent increase over last year, when the average price was $285,032. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.
“We are seeing relative stability in our average and median prices for the Calgary market,” says Stante. “A gradual return to moderate interest rates will not trigger any kind of steep decline in prices in our housing market. Prices may soften in select markets where inventory has bulked up, but for the most part they will remain relatively sticky as the economy improves.”
“Nonetheless with the combination of historically low interest rates and a large inventory of homes, there are some great buys out there—particularly in areas where comparable stock is ample such as the condominium and multi-family market. This presents a great opportunity to get into the market or to trade up,” adds Stante.
The median price of a single family home in the city of Calgary for July 2010 was $400,000, showing a 5 per cent decrease from June 2010, when the median price was $418,900, and a 3 per cent increase from July 2009, when the median price was $390,000. The median price of a condominium in July 2010 was $268,000, showing a 1 per cent decrease from June 2010, when the median was $269,900. That’s up 2 per cent from July 2009, when the median price was $263,000.
All city of Calgary MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary’s city limits. The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.
There was a slowdown in the number of Calgarians putting homes up for sale in the month of July. Single family listings in the city of Calgary added for the month of July totalled 1,942, a decrease of 29 per cent from June 2010 when 2,733 new listings were added, and showing a decrease of 7 per cent from July 2009, when 2,089 new listings came to the market.
Condominium new listings in the city of Calgary added for July 2010 were 890, down 18 per cent from June 2010, when the MLS® saw 1,084 condo listings coming to the market. This is a decrease of 3 per cent from July 2009, when new condominium listings added were 918.
“Indeed Alberta and Calgary’s economic recovery is lagging behind the rest of the country right now. But on the bright side we see this trend reversing itself as we move into 2011. We expect Alberta to lead in economic growth and recovery—outperforming much of the country in 2011,” says Stante.
To view the CREB statistics page, please visit the media page here:
Calgary Real Estate Statistics
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