CMHC's First-Time Homebuyers Survey

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has just released their first time Buyer survey. Certainly some interesting thoughts and findings in there further to my Blog regarding the slowing process of mortgage financing!

The survey points out that first-time homebuyers typically have lower incomes than other homebuyers. As a matter of fact, 65% of new buyers have household incomes of less than $90k and one in five of those have a total household income of under $45k. This would strengthen my position regarding the fact that the vanishing inventory of more affordable homes (under $400k) will be a major contributor of how the market proceeds over the next few weeks, months and years. If there are fewer homes available in the range these new homebuyers can afford, it will certainly slow the market significantly. If homes are not affordable for these buyers, the opportunity for other homebuyers to sell their homes and move up will also slow down.

Another finding within the survey points toward the fact that new homebuyers typically take about three months longer to plan their purchase than repeat buyers. The median time frame for planning is about ten months. If we see further spread between what these new home buyers can afford and the actual pricing of homes, we could see that planning time period expand further as new homebuyers have to save longer for a significant down payment.

What I found especially interesting in the survey is the fact that 70% of first time homebuyers purchase single family homes, whereas only 28% purchased apartment or townhouse styled condos. Perhaps there will be a shift in this trend as single family homes become further out of reach financially and new homebuyers will need to lower their expectations as to what they want in a new home. This will certainly affect the quantity of sales of single family detached homes, possibly dragging prices downward.

We certainly need to keep a close eye on this spread between affordability and market value for new home buyers and repeat buyers alike. Keep in mind that half of repeat buyers have a household income of $90k or less as well. As financiers and Government initiatives tighten the process for obtaining mortgages further, this will put additional pressure on the market where affordable homes are becoming further and farther between.

City Centre or the Suburbs?

We are thinking we might like to move closer to the inner city ,of course, prices are generally higher there and we don't want to dip into our retirement savings too much but what are your thoughts on that sort of move? Do you expect values to increase more rapidly in the inner city versus the suburbs?

Thanks for the note and your questions, it is always good to hear from you!

The inrush to the city centre and popularity to more urban living is very interesting and certainly a diversion from the way things have been in past.  As people became more affluent over the past few decades, there seemed to be an exodus to the surrounding areas of Calgary and great homes were built on acreages that surrounded the city. I remember when I first moved to Calgary in the mid-80's, places such as Artist Point on the West side of Calgary were the envy of many. Although there still is this type of growth and development today, there has been a major shift in this paradigm and more and more of these affluent - and pretty well folks from all walks of life - have been flocking to the city centre and areas of great walkability. The hustle and bustle of the downtown, walking access to shopping and services, and easy access to public transit are of great interest and importance to more people than ever.

I do not think this is a flash in the pan movement and believe we will see more and more of this over the next few years. Without a doubt we will see a further impodus in the city core and developers will see this trend and come up with many creative styles of homes and developments in these areas.

Just looking at many of the micro markets within the Calgary real estate market certainly is proof to this change. Communities in the suburbs seem to be declining in popularity relative to more central communities and homes are taking longer to sell in the outskirts of the city. The suburbs are a great choice for many families and offers a completely different lifestyle than inner city living, and that is totally a personal choice.

If I was looking to invest in new properties today, I would certainly be taking a serious look at the inner city myself and the potential for particular communities to fall within a great walking score. I was visiting friends in a beautiful condo complex in Spruce Cliff a couple of weeks ago and thinking what a great investment they made in the area. I absolutely believe that values close to the city core will accelerate faster that the outlying areas, and retain their value as other areas within the city may falter.

 

I can certainly keep you in the loop with a customized market report for you so that you can keep an eye on some of these communities yourself. I would also be happy to sit with you to come up with a strategy together in anticipation of making this new move.

Have a great Movember!